DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/02 11:31
Grains Quiet at Midday
Grain trade holding around unchanged at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow futures down 80 points. The
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 60 points lower. Energies
are lower with crude 0.60 lower. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
mixed with gold down $0.50.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade grinding along near the
upper end of the recent range. Harvest progress should continue into the
weekend, keeping some harvest pressure on. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable
in the near term with crude and corn fairly range bound, and ethanol futures
edging slightly higher. On the nearby December chart resistance is the 100-day
at $3.89, which we have been able to move above, but not hold above so far,
just ahead of the $3.95 September high which is next chart resistance then the
200-day at 3.99 after that. Support is at the 20-day moving average at $3.82,
then the $3.57 1/2 contract low. Trade focus will return toward the yield
reports going towards the weekend.
Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents lower, migrating back to the middle of the
recent range. Meal is flat to $1 lower, and oil is 35 to 45 points higher.
Soybean harvest should move fairly quickly this week with early yields
remaining fairly strong, keeping supply pressure on the market. The export
market was quiet to end the week. Early South American planting will pick up in
the near term, with dryness in Northern Brazil for now. On the November chart
the contract low at $8.53 1/4 is long term support with the 20-day moving
average at $8.77 nearby support which we have edged below at midday. Resistance
is at the $9.02 high seen earlier in the week, then the 50-day at $9.11.
Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents lower across the three contracts at midday
following the lead of the row crops overnight. Concerns over dry planting
conditions in Ukraine and Russia have limited selling interest on breaks; while
the dollar continues to chop in the upper end of the range keep U.S. origin
more expensive on the world export market. With Russian prices rising, the U.S.
competition gap could be reduced in the near term, especially if the dollar
weakness picks up post jobs report. U.S. winter wheat planting progress should
continue to move along at a good clip. On the Kansas City December chart
support is at the 10-day at $4.97 and 20-day moving average at $4.89 with
resistance at the $5.12 recent high then the $5.35 100-day moving average.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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