DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/21 10:49
Corn, Wheat Down; Soybeans Up Midday Tuesday
Corn is 6 to 7 cents lower, soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher and wheat is 8
to 13 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 120 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is narrowly mixed. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are weaker
with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with
gold up $18.00.
Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents lower at midday Tuesday with soft spread action
and trade showing range-bound action as we look to see how outside markets hold
up and how harvest progresses short term. Ethanol margins will continue to
struggle with natural gas costs seeing a pullback Tuesday as demand rebounds a
bit to start the week. South America will continue with early full season corn
planting and little weather concerns there so far. Corn basis will continue to
fade to harvest, which should push to above-average pace with the higher temps
near term and some rains in the western belt. Weekly crop progress showed corn
93% dented versus 89% on average, 57% mature versus 47% on average, and 10%
harvested versus 9% on average; 58% good to excellent and 14% poor to very
poor, up 1%. On the December contract, we have support at the fresh low at
$4.97 while resistance is the 20-day at $5.28.
Soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade holding support at the
lower end of the range and trade seeing early harvest pressure as shipping
remains constrained, along with limited early issues in South America and a
slow pace of sale announcements in recent days. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher
and oil is flat to 0.10 cent higher. Warmer weather should continue to push the
crop towards maturity with harvest ramping up this week and weekly crop
progress showing 58% dropping leaves versus 48% on average, 6% harvested, same
as average, with 58% good to excellent and 14% poor to very poor, up 1%. Basis
levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. South American planting will
get more attention into the end of the month as well. On the November soybean
chart, resistance at the 20-day at $12.95 with support at the recent low at
Wheat trade is 8 to 13 cents lower with Minneapolis action leading at midday
and limited spillover Tuesday morning from outside markets and row crops. The
dollar pushed back over 93 points carrying action back to the summer highs on
flight to safety action holding gains Tuesday. KC is 1 cent weaker than Chicago
with flat action so far, with Minneapolis at a 196-cent premium on the December
to Chicago. Weekly crop progress showing winter wheat 21% planted versus 18% on
average, 3% emerged versus 2% on average. Weather in the Plains looks dry short
term as planting gets going with little fresh news on Southern Hemisphere
weather so far. KC December on the chart has resistance at the 20-day at $7.10,
which we faded from Monday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.83.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For more free DTN information sent right to your email each morning - click here
to sign up for DTN Snapshot.