DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 11/21 06:04
Look for Cattle Complex Futures to Open Mixed
Live and feeder contracts should open this morning on a mixed 21.74-plus in
basis as traders cautiously position ahead of late week cash and the release of
the on feed report. Lean hog futures are also likely to start biz with uneven
price action thanks to further profit taking and bear spreading.
By John Harrington
Cattle: Steady-$2 HR Futures: mixed Live Equiv $174.39 + 0.76*
Hogs: Steady Futures: mixed Lean Equiv $101.30 + 0.98**
* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue
We expect at least light to moderate cash trading to finally surface today
sometime between noon and mid afternoon. Opening bids should be around $167-168
in the South and $264-265 in the North. Yet packers will probably find it
necessary to move closer to high asking prices (i.e., $174-plus in the South
and $270 plus in the North) in order to collect necessary slaughter numbers.
The dynamics of this last-minute standoff feels very familiar. It's possible
that traders will not come to terms until after the release of the November 1
on feed report (i.e., 2:00 p.m. CST). Average trade guesses regarding the on
feed profile look like this: on feed, 100%; placed in October, off 4-5%;
marketed in October, off 7-8%. Live and feeder futures are staged for a mixed
opening as both sides so what they can to anticipate cash business,
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